Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. METHODS: We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. RESULTS: Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks. METHODS: We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India's speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.

Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?

BACKGROUND: Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. METHODS: We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for a natural experiment given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. With a daily longitudinal data set of new infections, total vaccinations, and cumulative infections in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated how the emergence of Omicron has altered the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. We used the Arellano-Bond method to estimate regression coefficients from a dynamic panel model, in which new infections are a function of infections yesterday and last week. We controlled for vaccinations and prior infections in the population. To test whether Omicron has changed the average trajectory of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, we included an interaction between an indicator variable for the emergence of Omicron and lagged infections. RESULTS: The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly 1.5-2 times those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. CONCLUSIONS: The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning.

Lives and Livelihoods in Smallholder Farming Systems of Senegal: Impacts, Adaptation, and Resilience to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had immediate and cascading impacts on global agricultural systems. In Senegal, the immediate impacts include inaccessibility of inputs due to disruption in markets and supply chains, availability of labor, and changes in crop and livestock management practices. To understand the range of impacts on the biophysical and socioeconomic dimensions of smallholder farming systems, a survey was designed to identify the risk factors, assess the impacts, and explore appropriate mitigation strategies. The survey was administered to 917 smallholder farmers in 14 regions of Senegal in collaboration with a national farmer's organization and the Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research (ISRA). The sample was comprised of farmers (men and women) and was stratified in each region to ensure representation from all agroecological zones of the country. The survey examined variables such as access to inputs, ability to plant, impacts on yields, markets, labor, the gendered division of labor, food security, and community well-being. The survey response indicated that 77.7% of respondents experienced a reduction in access to inputs, 70.3% experienced a reduction in ability to plant crops during the planting season, 57.1% experienced a reduction in ability to rent farm machinery, and 69.2% reported a reduction in yields. Similar findings were observed for labor, market conditions, and adaptation measures to reduce the impacts on farming systems and household livelihoods. This study advances the research on characterizing risk factors, assessing the impacts, and designing mitigation strategies for strengthening smallholder farming systems resilience to future shocks.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vegetable production systems and livelihoods: Smallholder farmer experiences in Burkina Faso.

At the onset of COVID-19, researchers quickly recognized the need for research on the consequences of the pandemic for agricultural and food systems, both in terms of immediate impacts on access to inputs and labor, disruptions in transportation and markets, and the longer-term implications on crop productivity, income, and livelihoods. Vegetable production and supply chains are particularly vulnerable due to the perishable nature of the products and labor-intensive production practices. The purpose of this study was to understand the impacts of COVID-19 on vegetable production in Burkina Faso in terms of both the biophysical aspects such as yields and access to inputs and socioeconomic aspects such as access to labor, markets, and social services. A survey was developed to better understand smallholder farmer experiences regarding the impacts of COVID-19 on their vegetable production systems and social well-being. The survey was administered (between August and October 2020) with smallholder farmers (n = 605) in 13 administrative regions covering all agroecological zones of Burkina Faso. The survey results clearly show impacts of COVID-19 on vegetable systems, including a reduction in access to inputs, a reduction in yields, a loss of income, reduced access to local and urban markets, reduced access to transportation, and an increase in post-harvest loss. Market access, distribution, and disruptions were a major shock to the system. Results also showed an increase in women's labor in the household, and for youth, an increase in unemployment, job loss, and concerns of poverty. Finally, food security and social supports were highlighted as major issues for resilience and livelihoods. The results from this survey should be helpful to policymakers and researchers to develop policies and strategies to minimize the negative impacts of this ongoing pandemic on the agri-food systems and support smallholder farmers to overcome stress caused by COVID-19.

Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems.

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting health and economies across the world, although the nature of direct and indirect effects on Asian agrifood systems and food security has not yet been well understood. Objectives: This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments. Methods: A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed. Results and conclusion: The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes. Significance: This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.

Smallholder farmer perceptions about the impact of COVID-19 on agriculture and livelihoods in Senegal.

CONTEXT: The global COVID-19 pandemic has produced a variety of unanticipated shocks to farming and socio-economic systems around the world. In case of Senegal, the country was already facing number of challenges at the inception of the pandemic, including high rates of poverty, prevalence of food insecurity, combined with other biophysical and socioeconomic challenges faced generally in Sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: To understand farmer perceptions of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural systems and social well-being of smallholder farmers in Senegal. Particular attention was given to potential vulnerabilities and resilience in the targeted farming systems. METHODS: A survey was developed to better understand smallholder farmer perceptions regarding the anticipated impacts of COVID-19 on their agriculture practices and social well-being. The survey was administered (between June 5 and June 20) with smallholder farmers (n = 872) in 14 regions covering all agroecological zones. Variables of interest included perceptions of potential impact on farming systems, agricultural productivity, communities, economics, markets, labor, gendered division of labor, food security, and community well-being. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Across the three farming systems examined (cropping, livestock, and horticulture) significant majorities expressed concerns related to access to inputs, ability to plant (cropping, horticulture), reduction of yields (cropping, horticulture), ability to feed livestock, ability to sell livestock, and the ability to hire labor (horticulture). The majority of respondents also expressed concern that COVID-19 would make it more difficult to get enough food on a regular basis for their household (82.5%); that the markets where they purchase food will either be closed or significantly disrupted (79.5%); that the price of food would increase (73.5%); and the market where they sell their produce/livestock will be either closed or significantly disrupted (73.2%). SIGNIFICANCE: Anticipated impacts of COVID-19 on agriculture will be felt on both the biophysical aspects such as production and access to inputs and socioeconomic aspects such as access to labor, markets, or rapid shifts in demand. Results support the need to use farming systems approach to gather perceived and actual impacts of COVID-19 and warrants a more in-depth examination of agronomic and biophysical issues as well as the impact on the livelihoods and social well-being of families at community and household levels. Further examination will help identify the characteristics that strengthen smallholder farming systems resilience to adjust to anticipated and unanticipated shocks, such as COVID-19, to decrease the negative impacts and increase the rate of recovery.